BY CATHERINE BROWNLEE,
PRESIDENT OF ALBERTA ENTERPRISE GROUP (AEG), CALGARY AND EDMONTON CHAPTERS

The current federal government decree is for all new passenger vehicles to have net-zero emissions by 2035 – that’s only 11 years away. Rather than liquid or gaseous fuel, electric vehicles (EVs) run on electricity and must get that electricity from somewhere. Can Alberta’s grid handle the new load? A new report from the Fraser Institute suggests no – not without new power plants being planned and built almost immediately. 

In Electric Vehicles and the Demand for Electricity, Professor G. Cornelis van Kooten crunches the numbers and comes to the conclusion that nationally, just for a modest increase in EVs, average system demand will likely increase between 7.5 per cent (the best-case scenario) and 15.3 per cent (worst-case scenario). This does not include the additional demand on the electric grid from all of the other net-zero transition policies such as electric heating and electrifying all industrial processes. 

For Alberta, given the distances that people have to travel in their everyday lives and the much colder temperatures in the winter, it is likely the system load demand could be higher than the worst case scenario. 

Where will all this extra power come from? 

Hydroelectricity is considered “green” or renewable energy but is highly dependent on location. B.C., Quebec, Ontario and Manitoba have many good locations; Alberta and Saskatchewan have few locations for hydroelectricity. Even so, most of the best places for hydropower in Canada have already been taken and there is growing concern over the long-term environmental impacts of future hydroelectric development. For context, the single 1,100 MW Site C dam in B.C. began the planning process in 2010 and it will not be operational until 2025. 

Although Alberta’s provincial regulatory process is quicker (in the case of the new Cascade 900 MW combined cycle natural gas power facility – from application to operation was five years) there is considerable uncertainty from the federal government regarding what type of electricity generation will be permitted in the nation. 

Of course, even though Section 92A 1(c) of the Canadian constitution clearly puts electricity generation under exclusive provincial responsibility, the issue of jurisdiction over electricity generation and emissions has not yet been resolved. This means that future reliable natural gas power projects may not be permitted. 

The expense, land use footprint, unreliability and local environmental damage due to wind turbines make them a questionable solution for Alberta and other regions. 

Another solution is nuclear power; it has the potential to provide reliable electricity. However, there are issues regarding lengthy regulatory review and approval processes in addition to concerns over nuclear waste and the potentially catastrophic consequences if there is a failure. 

All of these factors represent a significant challenge for the future of Canada’s and Alberta’s grid and the net zero energy transition. 

Time is running out. We need to have an open and honest conversation about the realities around net-zero and what is the best way forward to ensure a reliable, affordable and secure grid.