DR. JACK MINTZ
President’s Fellow at the School of Public Policy,
University of Calgary

Alberta’s heavy‑oil industry remains competitive even as carbon taxes are increased and decarbonisation mandates are tightened. Because both Alberta and Venezuela rely on in‑situ extraction, their products are considered near‑identical, but the sharp decline in Venezuelan exports to the U.S. Gulf Coast over the past two decades has actually boosted Alberta’s market position. As long as pipelines stay functional and policy pressures do not cripple costs, Alberta’s oil can continue to be sold without immediate alarm.

A caution is offered that any hesitation in expanding pipeline capacity or easing regulatory hurdles could allow market share to be taken by Venezuela, which is seeking to increase U.S. shipments. While no urgent panic is deemed necessary, the importance of proactive infrastructure investment and balanced carbon policies is underscored in order to sustain Alberta’s oil advantage in the evolving global energy landscape.

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