DR. JACK MINTZ
President’s Fellow at the School of Public Policy,
University of Calgary

The latest federal‑provincial deal ostensibly clears the way for a major oil pipeline from Alberta to the Pacific, including provisions for a million‑barrel‑per‑day flow and a 300–400 k bpd TMX expansion. However, the agreement is contingent on strict emissions cuts, a tightened carbon tax, and other regulatory approvals that could prove prohibitive.

If these conditions aren’t met, the pipeline may remain a symbolic promise, deepening Alberta’s frustration with Ottawa and stoking separatist sentiment. This is a test of Canada’s ability to balance climate commitments with the economic realities of its oil‑rich provinces, and serves as a warning that failure would be a “major embarrassment” for the nation.

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